CDU EXPERT: Will the Greens lose their first and only Northern Territory seat?

10 FEBRUARY, 2026 

Who: Charles Darwin University Northern Institute Adjunct Professor Rolf Gerritsen. 

Topics: 

• Resignation of Kat McNamara as MLA for Nightcliff. Mc Namara was the first elected Greens politician in the Northern Territory.  

• Northern Territory politics.  

• Remote and northern Australian development.  

Contact details: Call +61 8 8946 6721 or email media@cdu.edu.au to arrange an interview. 

Quotes attributable to Professor Gerritsen: 

“I estimate that about 10 per cent of the Nightcliff electorate will not have voted at the last NT election because they are recent arrivals to the Territory. This will favour Labor, mainly because of these people bringing ‘southern’ attitudes to politics and the federal Coalition's disarray will weigh heavily. 

“This is an electorate that has a high proportion of people with university degrees, to the benefit of Labor and the Greens, and the same with a high proportion of renters. 

“By-elections usually produce a swing against the government. The question is, who benefits? I think the CLP government is becoming increasingly arrogant, and the electorate will feel that they need a bit of a reality check. 

“The Greens at the last election had a better on-ground organisation than Labor with doorknockers, booth workers, pamphleteers and so on. This time around they won't because there is a great incentive for Labor to have an MLA in Darwin, as well as to give a black eye to an increasingly arrogant CLP government. 

“Labor will have as many election workers as the Greens. Labor was hampered last time by its member Natasha Fyles being a former chief minister, so she got tarred by the unpopularity of the Labor government. 

“The voters of Nightcliff are more likely to be agitated by some issues that do not necessarily resonate as much in other parts of Darwin-Palmerston, for example the incoming Administrator's social media history.”